I have never claimed to be a fortune-teller, and don’t presume to start now. However, I will make some predictions for the elections on Nov 6, 2018. Take these for what they are: My own personal guesses at how things will turn out.
House of Representatives:
Republicans lose 4 seats, maintain control.
Senate:
Republicans gain 6 seats, for a 57-43 advantage.
Governorships:
By the end of the day, Republicans hold 29 seats, with Democrats at 21.
Sure, the polls indicate that Dems are going to have a big day, but I have not trusted polls for a long time, and 2016 showed how unreliable they are, especially in close races. As Larry Schweikart has pointed out, early voting patterns are more reliable, when compared to past elections, and his model has Tuesday as a good day for Republicans.
So I am putting this out here before the election. We can revisit on Wednesday and revel in my prognostications or you can feel free to make fun of my rose colored expectations, whichever turns out to be the case.
I simply see no way the “Blue Wave” is not a fabrication, and the Donald Trump wing of the Republicans will have a good, good day.
Election Predictions
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That is my read on the probable outcome barring massive voter fraud greater than what has been done in the past.
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Yup, I just can’t see the senate going as hard GOP as I expect while the house goes just as hard the other way. Same voters with no need to split their votes.
If you are correct, the tsunami of tears and lunacy is going to top 2016.
Honestly, I think I am being VERY conservative here. I would not be surprised if we had even more R seats in both houses and governor’s mansions.
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Well, polls favoring Dems and premature calls for dems do help hide voter fraud by creating expectations of dem victories so that the fraud won’t be as obvious if most won’t question the result if it matches manufactured expectations.
Well, on the morning after, it’s clear there was a blue wave, though much smaller than anticipated. With the liberals holding the house, any forward movement of the trump administration will be bogged down, if not outright stopped. The House controls the purse strings, and if they refuse to bring necessary bills to the floor, like funding a wall, it won’t happen.
It’s nice the senate gained 3, because that helps, but right now, Trumps agenda is in doubt…..add to that the gains in state governorships, statehouse seats, and so on.
Basically, conservatives had their ass handed to them last night.
Oh, and I loathe liberals and everything they stand for….
Well, I don’t know that I would call that a Blue Wave, though they did much better in the House than I anticipated. In fact, they had a really good night, regarding the House. But I was pretty close about the Senate and Governorships. We did expand our lead in the Senate, if not by as much as I thought they would. Governorships are not all decided yet, but I will be within 2 or 3 there.
Still, since appropriations come from the House, we will see little get done for the next two years. Do not expect a Wall. Expect lots of pushback on Trump’s plans regarding trade.
We can still see the Judiciary appointments going through, and the Republicans even have a little more room now, with more votes on their side.McConnell will have a good couple of years here.
While I am disappointed in the outcome in the House, the silver lining (which is what you look for in this type of situation) is that most of those Republicans incumbents who lost were either Never-Trumpers or squishy republicans, so at least we got them cleaned out. It sets the stage for a better crop of candidates in two years.
Blue wave my ass. Blue ripple. On one side of the pond.
The big takeaways are that Trump has big coat tails and the more local the election, the more retail politics matter.