Seems a bit early to be writing this, but the fact is the history is already written. The nails are in the coffin. It’s already happened. The US is down 34 to 10, and there are only 2 minutes to go. There is no time for a comeback.
Recently, I had a friend share a great essay on the life cycle of nations. This essay is called The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival. It is written by Sir John Glubb.
In this most excellent work, the author examines the history of great nations… the Greeks… Rome.. The Byzantines… the Ottomans. He seeks out patterns and tries to learn what lessons can be learned. As always, a work like this should be judged by its predictive ability. Lots of models can be created to match the past. But matching the past doesn’t help unless they also turn out to match the future. So why is this work important?
Well, it specifically predicts the breakup of the Soviet Union, which was something that people of the 60s and 70s simply found unthinkable.
Now let’s look at the Glubb’s stages of the life cycle and see how they match up with the life cycle of the United States.
Stage I: Outburst. This stage is the pioneer stage. As Glubb states, over and over again in history, we see a small native people exploding and conquering large land masses. To many, this will make them think of Manifest Destiny and the western expansion, but to my own eye, the outburst was the Revolutionary War. Before the war, the colonies were insignificant on the world stage. Then came the defeat of the English. It is after all called the Shot Heard Round the World for a reason.
Stage II – Age of Conquest: In this stage we see the great expansion. This is where manifest destiny comes in. Old weapons are mastered and improved, new weapons are invented, and massive lands are conquered. While conquering and settling these new lands, massive amounts of wealth are generated. Again, this should all be sounding familiar.
Stage III – Age of Commerce: Industrial Revolution, anyone? All of that wealth ends up being put to use, as infrastructure in this stage explodes. In this stage, we see art and luxury. You see grand state buildings. The rich build themselves palaces. Now think of Mr. Vanderbilt’s Biltmore. Is it not a palace? It should be noted in this stage the schooling of boys is still intentionally rough. Fortitude and courage and honesty are all priorities. I would note that American Football was developed during this period to drive those qualities home.
High Noon: This is the peak of the Nation. It’s the point where the nation goes from growing to dying. For the US, this was the 1940s. WWII was won. Evil was defeated, and everyone relaxed. Money was everywhere. The US was the most powerful nation in the world. And now, for the first time, we had something to lose, and we noticed we may want to protect it.
Stage IV – Age of Affluence: Money is the destroyer of nations. That is certain. Over time, the desire to be rich replaces the individual desire 
for fame or conquest or achievement. Rather than going to school for learning or virtue, men go to school to learn how to get rich. And yes, it will disappoint those who believe history has ended, to know that Arab moralists complained about this exact problem way back in 1090. What is the American dream, my friends? Is it climbing Everest? Or is it being able to buy stuff? It changed back in the age of affluence. In America this was the Post-WWII period. The Baby Boomers were raised to be spoiled brats, and that was the beginning of the end. The age of affluence is characterized by defensiveness. Empires are considered immoral. Conquest is immoral. War and fighting are immoral. Again, bells should be going off. Think back to the counterculture of the 60s and 70s. “You’re all doing it wrong!” shouted the hippies. But the message the hippies thought was new, was just the same thousand-year-old mistake of all rich, spoiled children of affluence.
Stage V – Age of Intellect: In this stage, the nation is deciding that all the world’s problems can be solved, not by hard work and courage and determination and struggle, but by the brain alone. After all, it’s CURRENT YEAR. In this stage, the population imagines that everyone is a genius and everyone should go to college. This exact thing happened in the 11th century to the Arabs. Rather than a few universities in the major cities, universities sprung up in every small town. This was not a sign of life and a bright future. This was the tolling of the death bell. Today in the USA, we are told every day that education is the answer. This is proof positive of where we stand in the life cycle. Education is not the answer. Everyone is not a super genius. There is no shiny Star Trek utopia around the corner. Rather, around the corner… is the grave.
The USA was born in 1776.
As we study the life cycle of these ancient nations, we come to a stark and obvious average. 250 years.
My friends, 2026 is less than a decade away.
It appears to me we are right on schedule.
Decline And Fall Of The United States
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I little light reading ahead for a snowy evening. Thanks! One book along similar lines I recommend is William Playfair’s (1807) “An Inquiry into the Permanent Causes of the Decline and Fall of Powerful and Wealthy Nations.” https://www.gutenberg.org/files/16575/16575-h/16575-h.htm
Same observations, and even a similar outlook (though in many more words). Playfair thought he had the solution for prolonging the wealth of the British Empire. Alas, he was incorrect.
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Nate, have you tried talking Six into doing an annual Year-in-Review show, similar to the ATF format, where you discuss these long-term topics with the callers? I know he’s busy and all, but a once or twice a year thing shouldn’t be too hard to pull off.
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Don McLean – American Pie
That song has always been about the historic American nation and the attack that was (and is) upon it.
The nostalgia for it is haunting.
That’s how I’ve always heard that song from the first time I heard it as a kid in the late 1980’s.
McLean may have meant it to be about a plane crash, but he accidentally and unconsciously transcended that message.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAsV5-Hv-7U
[…] – Here […]
34 to 10
2:00 to go
Trailing team receives kick off and kick returner receives the ball on one yard line. Runs straight up the middle as blockers open up a hole as big as Texas. Runner scampers straight up the middle and veers to the Left for 99 yards and a TOUCHDOWN! They go for two point conversion. Quick slant over the middle to the tight end for a completed pass and two points.
34 to 18
1:48
On the ensuing kick, kicker chips ball over front line of receiving team and is recovered by kicking team.
1:41
Ball on the oppositions 48 yard line.
First play QB drops back, dodges fierce pass rush and scrambles for 27 yards out of bounds on opponents 21 yard line.
1st and 10 1:29
QB drops back hitting wide receiver in the corner of the end zone for 21 yards and a TOUCHDOWN
QB drops back to pass and hands off to WR for a reverse 2 pt conversion good
34 to 26
Another successful onside kick! Ball bounces of the chest of up lineman back into hands of kicker who runs to the opponents 44 yard line
1:15 Time Out on the field.
1st and10 (no timeouts for either team)
Screen pass to the left. Runner is tackled at the 34 yard line
1st and 10 clock continues to run. :59 as ball is hiked. QB drops back and completes pass down the center of field to the 12 yard line
1st and 10
Ball is spiked with :33 remaining in regulation
2nd and 10
Quick pass… completed to the 4 yard line as the clock is running down
QB spikes ball with :03 remaining in regulation.
4th and 2
QB pitches to tail back around right end. TOUCHDOWN with zero seconds remaining in the game. ….
They go for 2point conversion
Pass to left corner of the end zone SUCCESSFUL!
Miracle finish!
34 to 34
OVERTIME
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I am studying for a degree in occupational safety and health. One of my last classes was Western Civilization. The current USA mirrors each and every culture since the Etruscans prior to Rome and parallels the empire of Alexander the great. And it’s a conservative University as well. Heaven help us all.
What is lacking is the WILL.
Word.
The worst part of it is , that we have history to inform us , and no one cared enough not to repeat it.
The decline is in direct correlation to the introduction of socialism here – which happened before the bolsheviks took Russia , town by town , city by city.
Now they have us in a position where another generation passes by , and America will no longer exist. The communists won because the bulk of our population sneered at people warning them , and arrogantly stated “It can’t happen here.”
Well it did. And all you people who didn’t listen are responsible. I am a former communist – just so you all know.
The WILL to do what sir? That is the horrifying aspect of Glubb’s essay and historical conclusion.
GMAN, we can argue all day about what triggered this and set off that. The point that Mr. Lector is highlighting is that IT DOESN’T MATTER. All of these cultures ran the same race. We can draw parallels, sure, but let’s try to refrain ourselves from trying to correlate the moment socialist thought entered into the historical Arab superstate.
The causes and circumstances are all different. But each Empire meets the same fate. There is not the Ah Ha! moment wherein they heal themselves and come out of it. That is part of what Mr. Lector is trying to get across. The Empire has its course charted.
Look to your own family and your own community. The aggregate ain’t pretty and ain’t changing. Love God. Love your family. Plan for the future generations. Time to work Man of the West.
The desiccation and death of the USA has been planned for a long time.
Also planned for a long time was the rise of China/East Asia as the next great world power.
There is nothing you can do to stop it, the process is nearly complete.
The only thing you might want to do is learn to speak a Chinese dialect.
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Would this be considered “spiking the ball” by a winning team?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/in-the-capital-of-the-confederacy-a-new-monument-and-a-chance-to-change-the-narrative/2019/12/10/92c77468-1b6c-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/two-virginia-democrats-want-to-replace-the-robert-e-lee-statue-in-the-capitol/2019/12/23/5ecc51c8-2365-11ea-86f3-3b5019d451db_story.html
That game ain’t over yet.
We are not there yet. Paul Foster Case wrote “The Great Seal of the United States of America” where he shows the importance of the number 13 all over the dollar bill and other numbers like Gods numbers of completion being 21. Manly P Hall wrote “The Secret Destiny of America” where he also describes the 13 year cycles of America. Well, 13 x 21 = 273. 1776 + 273 = 2049. That is most likely the end date for the great experiment. Remeber, 2045 is supposed to be the year singularity is reached and man creates its own AI being. 3.5 years from late in 2045 will take us into 2049. This is Biblical stuff.
First, Merry Christmas.
Second, we share a similar pessimism. I argue the cause has at least some of the roots in biology.
https://redpilljew.blogspot.com/2018/01/civilizational-collapse-and-brain.html
I am a “baby boomer” but I never knew anyone who “was raised to be a spoiled brat.”
Ok, boomer.
I pooped and there were stars and stripes in my stool. Maybe it’s a sign?
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